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Crude Hits Six-Month High: Oil's Rise Could Crush the 'Green Shoots'

Posted May 29, 2009 10:19am EDT by Aaron Task
There's two sides to every coin, and the other side of the "economic recovery" coin is higher oil prices, which could give the green shoots a serious trim.

Crude prices hit a six-month high above $66 per barrel Friday morning, following another drop in U.S. inventories and OPEC's decision to leave production unchanged.

There are a lot of moving parts to oil's price action, perhaps more than any other asset. Beyond OPEC's move and the global economy's attempt at recovery, the revival of speculation in "risk" assets is giving the commodity a boost while simultaneously putting downward pressure on the dollar.

Regardless if the reasons why, if crude's rebound from its late 2008 lows near $30 continues - and prices at the pump rise in kind - the recent rebound in consumer confidence is going to get stopped its tracks.

There is a potential silver lining here: the Obama administration, whether you agree with its policies or not, is attempting to get ahead of the energy curve with its new fuel economy mandates, rather than waiting for crude to get back above $100 before determining America needs a real long-term energy policy.

244 Comments

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:32AM EDT

Obama is trying to get ahead of the energy curve???.. What kinda crap is that? He wants to bankrupt the coal industry with cap and trade and then make US pay for it with higher energy prices. We would be better off drilling our own oil like Russia did and becoming a oil super power and become oil independent because by the time we do go green we could have had drilled the oil and be refining it already. Obama is so green I bet his teleprompter has green text.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 29, 2009 10:33AM EDT

The Dumb and Dumber show returns. Too bad.

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:33AM EDT

The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. What else is new?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 29, 2009 10:34AM EDT

Get your news elsewhere people. These guys have no idea what they're talking about--they talk about everything and no nothing about any of it.

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:36AM EDT

The house of cards is about to collapse. People can’t absorb the gas costs that are down the pipeline and mortgage rates are climbing higher too. My new most hated over used phrase "green shoots"

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:37AM EDT

If and when the electric car is a reality, the speculation will then move to the cost of electricity which will then rise and there will always be reasons to justify the disguised theft again. I agree with the suggestion that we need an energy policy and regulation.

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:43AM EDT

Since you don't hear this nearly enough, I would like to take this opportunity and speak for the silent majority: you guys (Henry and Aaron) are really great! You consistently produce very valuable and interesting commentary. I have not found another web site (other than Henry's clusterstock and maybe baseline_scenario or ml-implode) that are as valuable. Thanks much!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 29, 2009 10:44AM EDT

@unrepresented_american: in addition to stabilizing prices, oil and gas exploration would create decent jobs in the Southeast and Gulf Coast as well as Alaska. All we're doing now with our wrong-headed environmental policies is creating jobs overseas...

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:44AM EDT

Congratulations in finding the negative in that too... If it continues...if if if if ... Can you find the negative in rising consumer confidence? I'm sure you can.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 29, 2009 10:44AM EDT

Oil bubble is going to peak well above $100 BBL long before the marxists running GM roll out their new plug-in Lada's Those green shoots are poison ivy.

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:45AM EDT

Obama is bankrupting our economy, our children's future and any opportunity for individuals to succeed. He's bankrupted both Chrysler and GM(kiss those bailout billions goodbye) and health care is next. Soon we will all be under the thumb of China and India.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 29, 2009 10:45AM EDT

Totally wrong energy plan. Do your homework guys!

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:46AM EDT

Obama is bankrupting our economy, our children's future and any opportunity for individuals to succeed. He's bankrupted both Chrysler and GM(kiss those bailout billions goodbye) and health care is next. Soon we will all be under the thumb of China and India.

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:47AM EDT

The media plays hand in hand with Wall Street speculators. If you want to know how that works, just read this article. The article addresses the question of why gas prices are going up in spite of an abundance of oil and little demand. Notice that the article doesn't even address the idea of manipulation/speculation. Instead it points to supply and demand, and totally negates statements regarding oversupply and lack of demand in the first few sentences. Here is the article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20090529/wl_time/08599190144600 Note that oil tankers are literally drifting on the world's oceans presently with nowhere to offload oil because storage facilities are full.

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:47AM EDT

Imposing even more regulations and restrictions on the auto industry to meet higher fuel efficiency standards at the same time these companies are spinning down the drain makes no sense. All these wonderful "green" solutions are not going to happen overnight...and in the meantime we're all going to pay higher prices. There's no logical reasons, only political ones, for not expanding our own oil production with more drilling and more refineries, plus nuclear power, at the SAME TIME we invest in green technology solutions for the longer term. If Obama really cared about all the people he's always saying he's trying to protect, then he'd change his policies to avoid having them pay $4+ per gallon for gas...everyone gets screwed by higher energy prices, not just the "rich".

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 29, 2009 10:47AM EDT

This is coming from a degreed Geologist. There is not enough oil in the U.S. to meet our energy needs. We could double our production and it still would be only 10% of what is produced in the middle east currently. Those are the facts. Unfortunately the Pilgrams landed on the wrong continent.

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:48AM EDT

Option three..drill for our own oil in the US. Can these two drink any more Koolaid...

- Friday May 29, 2009 10:48AM EDT

That's ok the unemployed probably won't be using their cars too much.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 29, 2009 10:48AM EDT

yep... the solution for gas prices increases.. MORE TAXES.. ... tax increase.. that's it... so easy and plain to see... everyone knows that.. RAISE TAXES..... okay, what are you two shorting here??? hmmm? yep, obama declared the worst is over.. OBAMA THE MESSIAH HAS NOW REVIVED THE ECONOMY.. off to VEGAS BABY for some R/R... ya, you stooges drive and I"LL FLY on the TAXPAYERS DIME for fundraising for the LOON REID...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 29, 2009 10:49AM EDT

I'm glad these guys are back telling it how it is with respect to the Sucker Rally. So many people like to bash Task because he speaks the opposite of how the ignorant masses wish and hope things will be. In the short run, yes, he looks like a fool because the markets have been going up, but we'll see who laughs last. The strong indicators are being ignored and the weak indicators are being pumped up because they are considered Positive for the economy. You poor ignorant masses. No wonder the rich get richer and the poor get poorer... LOL

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